EO 12958 DECL: 9/29/2019
TAGS PREL, PGOV, LY, PINR
SUBJECT: A GLIMPSE INTO LIBYAN LEADER QADHAFI’ S ECCENTRICITIES
CLASSIFIED BY: XXXXXXXXXXXX, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Tripoli, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)
¶ 1. (S/NF) Summary: Recent first-hand experiences with Libyan Leader Muammar al-Qadhafi XXXXXXXXXXXX primarily in preparation for his UNGA trip, provided rare insights into Qadhafi’ s inner circle and personal proclivities. Qadhafi appears to rely heavily on XXXXXXXXXXXX and reportedly cannot travel with his senior Ukrainian nurse, Galyna XXXXXXXXXXXX. He also appears to have an intense dislike or fear of staying on upper floors, reportedly prefers not to fly over water, and seems to enjoy horse racing and flamenco dancing. His recent travel may also suggest a diminished dependence on his legendary female guard force, as only one woman bodyguard accompanied him to New York. End Summary.
QADHAFI’ S PERSONALITY REFLECTED IN HIS PHOBIAS
¶ 2. (S/NF) Muammar al-Qadhafi has been described as both mercurial and eccentric, and our recent first-hand experiences with him and his office, primarily in preparation for his UNGA trip, demonstrated the truth of both characterizations. From the moment Qadhafi’ s staff began to prepare for his travel to the United States, XXXXXXXXXXXX various proclivities and phobias began to reveal themselves in every logistical detail. When applying for Qadhafi’ s visa, protocol staff asked whether it was necessary for the Leader to submit a portrait of himself that fit consular application regulations, noting that his photo was displayed throughout the city and that anyone of hundreds of billboards could be photographed and shrunken to fit the application’ s criteria. When the rule was enforced, protocol staff reluctantly conceded to take a portrait of the Leader specifically for the visa application.
¶ 3. (S/NF) XXXXXXXXXXXX informed us that the Leader must stay on the first floor of any facility that was rented for him. (XXXXXXXXXXXX told XXXXXXXXXXXX that Qadhafi could not climb more than 35 steps.) XXXXXXXXXXXX cited this requirement as the primary reason that the Libyan residence in New Jersey was selected as the preferred accommodation site rather than the Libyan PermRep’ s residence in New York City.XXXXXXXXXXXX also sought to find accommodations with room to pitch Qadhafi’ s Bedouin tent, Qadhafi’ s traditional site for receiving visitors and conducting meetings, as it offers him a non-verbal way of communicating that he is a man close to his cultural roots.
¶ 4. (S/NF) Qadhafi’ s dislike of long flights and apparent fear of flying over water also caused logistical headaches XXXXXXXXXXXX explained that the Libyan delegation would arrive from Portugal, as Qadhafi “ cannot fly more than eight hours” and would need to overnight in Europe prior to continuing his journey to New York. XXXXXXXXXXXX also revealed in the same conversation that Qadhafi does not like to fly over water. Presumably for similar reasons, Qadhafi’ s staff also requested a stop in Newfoundland to break his travel from Venezuela to Libya on September 29. [Note: The Government of Canada recently confirmed that the Libyan delegation canceled plans to stop in Newfoundland. End Note.]
DEPENDENCIES: RELIANCE ON A SELECTIVE GROUP OF INDIVIDUALS
¶ 5. (S/NF) Qadhafi appears to be almost obsessively dependent on a small core of trusted personnel. XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX appears to play an equally important role in Qadhafi’ s personal retinueXXXXXXXXXXXX We constantly hear that XXXXXXXXXXXX also plays a key role XXXXXXXXXXXX also seems to have been tasked with insuring that the Leader’ s image is well-preserved through the full array of carefully-planned media events.
¶ 6. (S/NF) Finally, Qadhafi relies heavily on his long-time Ukrainian nurse, Galyna XXXXXXXXXXXX, who has been described as a “ voluptuous blonde.” Of the rumored staff of four Ukrainian nurses that cater to the Leader’ s health and well-being, XXXXXXXXXXXX emphasized to multiple Emboffs that Qadhafi cannot travel without XXXXXXXXXXXX, as she alone “ knows his routine.” When XXXXXXXXXXXX’ s late visa application resulted in her Security Advisory Opinion being received on the day Qadhafi’ s party planned to travel to the U.S., the Libyan Government sent a private jet to ferry her from Libya to Portugal to meet up with the Leader during his rest-stop. Some embassy contacts have claimed that Qadhafi and the 38 year-old XXXXXXXXXXXX have a romantic relationship. While he did not comment on such rumors, a XXXXXXXXXXXX recently confirmed that the Ukrainian nurses “ travel everywhere with the Leader.”
PREFERENCES - FROM DANCING TO HORSEMAN
¶ 7. (S/NF) In addition to the personality quirks revealed through Qadhafi’ s travel to New York, the Qadhafi’ s preferences for dancing and cultural performances were displayed over the last month. The three-day spectacle of his 40th anniversary in power included performances by dance troupes from Ukraine, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as musical performances by bands from Mexico, Russia, New Zealand, and a number of other nations. Qadhafi appeared particularly enthralled by Tuareg horse racing during two of the events, clapping and smiling throughout the races. The flamenco dancers that participated in his celebratory events appeared to spark a similar interest, as Qadhafi decided to stop in Seville (for a “ personal trip” according to the Spanish Ambassador here) on his way back to Libya from Venezuela specifically to attend a flamenco dance performance. [Note: That stop has reportedly been scrapped for unknown reasons. End note.]
NO NEW YORK PHOTO OPS - QADHAFI LEAVES FEMALE GUARDS AT HOME
¶ 8. (S/NF) While Qadhafi’ s reported female guard force has become legendary, it played no role in his travels to New York. Only one female guard was included among the approximately 350-person strong Libyan delegation to New York. This is the same female bodyguard who sticks close to Qadhafi in his domestic and international public appearances and may, in fact, play some sort of formal security role. Observers in Tripoli speculate that the female guard force is beginning to play a diminished role among the Leader’ s personal security staff.
¶ 9. (S/NF) Comment: Qadhafi’ s state visits and appearances at various conferences and summits, both at home and abroad, have revealed greater details about his personality and character. While it is tempting to dismiss his many eccentricities as signs of instability, Qadhafi is a complicated individual who has managed to stay in power for forty years through a skillful balancing of interests and realpolitik methods. Continued engagement with Qadhafi and his inner circle is important not only to learn the motives and interests that drive the world’ s longest serving dictator, but also to help overcome the misperceptions that inevitably accumulated during Qadhafi’ s decades of isolation. As XXXXXXXXXXXX told us, pointing to a larger-than-life portrait of Qadhafi, “ When you have been isolated for so long, it is important to communicate.” End comment.
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It is the best of times in the Sudan. It is the worst of times in the Sudan. It is the happiest day in the Sudan. It is the saddest day in the Sudan. It is referendum for the Sudan. It is requiem for Africa.
South Sudan just finished voting in a referendum, part of a deal made in 2005 to end a civil war that dates back over one-half century. The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) says the final results will be announced on February 14; but no one really believes there will be one united Sudan by July 2011. By then, South Sudan will be Africa’ s newest state.
In a recent speech at Khartoum University, Thabo Mbeki, former South African president and Chairperson of the African Union High-level Implementation Panel on Sudan, alluded to the causes of the current breakup of the Sudan: “ As all of us know, a year ahead of your independence, in 1955, a rebellion broke out in Southern Sudan. The essential reason for the rebellion was that your compatriots in the South saw the impending independence as a threat to them, which they elected to oppose by resorting to the weapons of war.” There is a lot more to the South Sudanese “ rebellion” than a delayed rendezvous with the legacy of British colonialism. In some ways it could be argued that the “ imperfect” decolonization of the Sudan, which did not necessarily follow the boundaries of ethnic and linguistic group settlement, led to decades of conflict and civil wars and the current breakup.
From Pan-Africanism to Afro-Fascism?
Many of the problems leading to the referendum are also rooted in post-independence Sudanese history — irreconcilable religious differences, economic exploitation and discrimination. The central Sudanese government’ s imposition of “ Arabism” and “ Islamism” (sharia law) on the South Sudanese and rampant discrimination against them are said to be a sustaining cause of the civil war. South Sudan is believed to hold much of the potential wealth of the Sudan including oil. Yet the majority of South Sudanese people languished in abject poverty for decades, while their northern compatriots benefitted disproportionately.
Whether the people of South Sudan will secede and form their own state is a question only they can decide. They certainly have the legal right under international law to self-determination, a principle enshrined in the U.N. Charter. Their vote will be the final word on the issue. The focus now is on what is likely to happen after South Sudan becomes independent. Those who seem to be in the know sound optimistic. Mbeki says, “ Both the Government of Sudan and the SPLM have made the solemn and vitally important commitment that should the people of South Sudan vote for secession, they will work to ensure the emergence and peaceful coexistence of two viable states.” The tea leaves readers and pundits are predicting doom and gloom. They say the Sudan will be transformed into a hardline theocratic state ruled under sharia law. There will be renewed violence in Darfur, South Kurdofan and Eastern Sudan. There will be endless civil wars that will cause more deaths and destruction according to the modern day seers.
To some extent, the pessimism over Sudan’ s future may have some merit. Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir’ s told the New York Times recently about his post-secession plans: “ We’ ll change the Constitution. Shariah and Islam will be the main source for the Constitution, Islam the official religion and Arabic the official language.” Bashir’ s plan goes beyond establishing a theocratic state. There will be no tolerance of diversity of any kind in Bashir’ s “ new Sudan” . He says, “ If South Sudan secedes, we will change the Constitution, and at that time there will be no time to speak of diversity of culture and ethnicity.” Bashir’ s warning is not only shocking but deeply troubling. The message undoubtedly will cause great alarm among secularists, Southern Sudanese living in the north who voted for unity and Sudanese of different faiths, viewpoints, beliefs and ideologies. In post-secession Sudan, diversity, tolerance, compromise and reconciliation will be crimes against the state. It is all eerily reminiscent of the ideas of another guy who 70 years ago talked about “ organic unity” and the “ common welfare of the Volk” . Sudanese opposition leaders are issuing their own ultimata. Sadiq al-Mahdi, leader of the Umma Party, issued a demand for a new constitution and elections; in the alternative, he promised to work for the overthrow of Bashir’ s regime. Other opposition leaders seem to be following along the same line. There is a rocky road ahead for the Sudan, both south and north.
The outcome of the South Sudanese referendum is not in doubt, but where Africa is headed in the second decade of the 21st Century is very much in doubt. Last week, Tunisian dictator Ben Ali packed up and left after 23 years of corrupt dictatorial rule. President Obama “ applauded the courage and dignity of the Tunisian people” in driving out the dictator. Ivory Coast’ s Laurent Gbagbo is still holed up in Abidjan taunting U.N. peacekeepers and playing round-robin with various African leaders. Over in the Horn of Africa, Meles Zenawi is carting off businessmen and merchants to jail for allegedly price-gouging the public and economic sabotage. What in the world is happening to Africa?
When African countries cast off the yoke of colonialism, their future seemed bright and limitless. Independence leaders thought in terms of Pan-Africanism and the political and economic unification of native Africans and those of African heritage into a “ global African community” . Pan-Africanism represented a return to African values and traditions in the struggle against neo-colonialism, imperialism, racism and the rest of it. Its core value was the unity of all African peoples.
The founding fathers of post-independence Africa all believed in the dream of African unity. Ethiopia’ s H.I.M. Haile Selassie, Ghana’ s Kwame Nkrumah, Kenya’ s Jomo Kenyatta, Tanzania’ s Julius Nyerere, Guinea’ s Ahmed Sé kou Touré , Zambia’ s Kenneth Kaunda and Egypt’ s Gamal Abdel Nasser were all declared Pan-Africanists. On the occasion of the establishment of the permanent headquarters of the Organization for African Unity (OAU) in Addis Ababa on May 25, 1963, H.I.M. Haile Selassie made the most compelling case for African unity:
We look to the vision of an Africa not merely free but united. In facing this new challenge, we can take comfort and encouragement from the lessons of the past. We know that there are differences among us. Africans enjoy different cultures, distinctive values, special attributes. But we also know that unity can be and has been attained among men of the most disparate origins, that differences of race, of religion, of culture, of tradition, are no insuperable obstacle to the coming together of peoples. History teaches us that unity is strength, and cautions us to submerge and overcome our differences in the quest for common goals, to strive, with all our combined strength, for the path to true African brotherhood and unity… . Our efforts as free men must be to establish new relationships, devoid of any resentment and hostility, restored to our belief and faith in ourselves as individuals, dealing on a basis of equality with other equally free peoples.
Pan-Africanism is dead. A new ideology today is sweeping over Africa. Africa’ s home grown dictators are furiously beating the drums of “ tribal nationalism” all over the continent to cling to power. In many parts of Africa today ideologies of “ ethnic identity” , “ ethnic purity,” “ ethnic homelands” , ethnic cleansing and tribal chauvinism have become fashionable. In Ivory Coast, an ideological war has been waged over ‘ Ivoirité (‘ Ivorian-ness’ ) since the 1990s. Proponents of this perverted ideology argue that the country’ s problems are rooted in the contamination of genuine Ivorian identity by outsiders who have been allowed to freely immigrate into the country. Immigrants, even those who have been there for generations, and refugees from the neighboring countries including Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Liberia are singled out and blamed for the country’ s problems and persecuted. Professor Gbagbo even tried to tar and feather the winner of the recent election Alassane Ouattara (whose father is allegedly Burkinabe) as a not having true Ivorian identity. Gbagbo has used religion to divide Ivorians regionally into north and south.
In Ethiopia, tribal politics has been repackaged in a fancy wrapper called “ ethnic federalism.” Zenawi has segregated the Ethiopian people by ethno-tribal classification like cattle in grotesque regional political units called “ kilils” (reservations) or glorified apartheid-style Bantustans or tribal homelands. This sinister perversion of the concept of federalism has enabled a few cunning dictators to oppress, divide and rule some 80 million people for nearly two decades.[1] South of the border in Kenya, in the aftermath of the 2007 elections, over 600 thousand Kenyans were displaced as a result of ethnic motivated hatred and violence. Over 1,500 were massacred. Kenya continues to arrest and detain untold numbers of Ethiopian refugees that have fled the dictatorship of Meles Zenawi. What more can be said about Rwanda that has not already been said.
It is not only the worst-governed African countries that are having problems with “ Africanity” . South Africa has been skating on the slippery slope of xenophobia. Immigrants from Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia have been attacked by mobs. According to a study by the Southern African Migration Project (SAMP): “ The ANC government – in its attempts to overcome the divides of the past and build new forms of social cohesion… embarked on an aggressive and inclusive nation-building project. One unanticipated by-product of this project has been a growth in intolerance towards outsiders… Violence against foreign citizens and African refugees has become increasingly common and communities are divided by hostility and suspicion.” Among the member countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), South Africans expressed the harshest and most punitive anti-foreigner sentiments in the study. How ironic for a country that was under apartheid less than two decades ago.
Whether it is the “ kilil” ideology practiced in Ethiopia or the “ Ivorite” of Ivory Coast, the central aim of these weird ideologies is to enable power hungry and bloodthirsty African dictators to cling to power by dividing Africans along ethnic, linguistic, tribal, racial and religious lines. Fellow Africans are foreigners to be arrested, jailed, displaced, deported and blamed for whatever goes wrong under the watch of the dictators. The old Pan-African ideas of common African history, suffering, struggle, heritage and legacy are gone. There is no unifying sense African brotherhood or sisterhood. Africa’ s contemporary leaders, or more appropriately, hyenas in designer suits and uniforms, have made Africans strangers to each other and rendered Africa a “ dog-eat-dog” continent.
In 2009, in Accra, Ghana, President Obama blasted identity politics as a canker in the African body politics:
We all have many identities – of tribe and ethnicity; of religion and nationality. But defining oneself in opposition to someone who belongs to a different tribe, or who worships a different prophet, has no place in the 21st century… . In my father’ s life, it was partly tribalism and patronage in an independent Kenya that for a long stretch derailed his career, and we know that this kind of corruption is a daily fact of life for far too many.
For what little it is worth, for the last few years I have preached from my cyber soapbox against those in Africa who have used the politics of ethnicity to cling to power. I firmly believe that our humanity is more important than our ethnicity, nationality, sovereignty or even Africanity! As an unreformed Pan-Africanist, I also believe that Africans are not prisoners to be kept behind tribal walls, ethnic enclaves, Ivorite, kilils, Bantustans, apartheid or whatever divisive and repressive ideology is manufactured by dictators, but free men and women who are captains of their destines in one un-walled Africa that belongs to all equally. “ Tear down the walls of tribalism and ethnicity in Africa,” I say.
It is necessary to come up with a counter-ideology to withstand the rising tide of Afro-Fascism. Perhaps we can learn from Archbishop Desmond Tutu’ s ideas of “ Ubuntu” , the essence of being human. Tutu explained: “ A person with Ubuntu is open and available to others, affirming of others, does not feel threatened that others are able and good, for he or she has a proper self-assurance that comes from knowing that he or she belongs in a greater whole and is diminished when others are humiliated or diminished, when others are tortured or oppressed.” I believe “ Ubuntu” provides a sound philosophical basis for the development of a human rights culture for the African continent based on a common African belief of “ belonging to a greater whole.” To this end, Tutu taught, “ Do your little bit of good where you are; it’ s those little bits of good put together that overwhelm the world.” More specifically, Africa.
“ Afri-Cans” and “ Afri-Cannots”
As for South Sudan, the future holds many dangers and opportunities. Africans have fought their way out of colonialism and become independent. Some have seceded from the post-independence states, but it is questionable if they have succeeded. How many African countries are better off today than they were prior to independence? Before secession? As the old saying goes: “ Be careful what you wish for. You may receive it.” We wish the people of South and North Sudan a future of hope, peace, prosperity and reconciliation.
I am no longer sure if Afri-Cans are able to “ unite for the benefit of their people” , as Bob Marley pleaded. But I am sure that Afri-Cannot continue to have tribal wars, ethnic domination, corruption, inflation and repression as Fela Kuti warned, and expect to be viable in the second decade of the Twenty-First Century. In 1963, H.I.M. Haile Selassie reminded his colleagues:
Today, Africa has emerged from this dark passage [of colonialism]. Our Armageddon is past. Africa has been reborn as a free continent and Africans have been reborn as free men… . Those men who refused to accept the judgment passed upon them by the colonisers, who held unswervingly through the darkest hours to a vision of an Africa emancipated from political, economic, and spiritual domination, will be remembered and revered wherever Africans meet… . Their deeds are written in history.
It is said that those who do not remember history are doomed to repeat it. I am afraid Africa’ s Armageddon is yet to come. Africa has been re-enslaved by home grown dictators, and Africans have become prisoners of thugs, criminals, gangsters, fugitives and outlaws who have seized and cling to power like parasitic ticks on a milk cow. Cry for the beloved continent!
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Analysis: Tunisia - first popular uprising in Arab world By ZVI MAZEL
01/17/2011 06:33, The Jerusalem Post
The spontaneous revolution of Tunisian people has forever changed Arab world; it has shown that grassroots revolution can happen everywhere.
What happened in Tunisia stunned and embarrassed Arab and Western countries alike.
Tunisia was not a country made of revolutionary material. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’ s government was stable and the economy prosperous. The country had expelled Rashad Anushi and the other leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood after their party, Islamic Renewal, had obtained 17 percent of the vote in the 1987 elections.
Since then, the West had seen in Ben Ali a bulwark against radical Islam. Tourism flourished and millions of visitors sang the country’ s praise. What no one wanted to see was that Ben Ali ruled with an iron fist and suffered neither legitimate opposition nor criticism. Those who tried to oppose him were jailed or left the country.
Not many people in the West noticed that it was only a very small minority that enjoyed the benefits of the economic reforms and revenues brought in by tourists. Corruption was rampant and the Ben Ali family, and that of his second wife Laila, were the principal beneficiaries.
Millions and even billions of dollars were diverted to their bank accounts in France and elsewhere. This hijacking of state funds led to inflation, and a constant rise in the price of basic necessities, followed by an increase in unemployment. Official figures put the number of jobless Tunisians at 15%, but 20% or more is probably nearer the mark. Still, the West did not react and only strengthened its bonds with Ben Ali.
Arab countries saw in Tunisia a shining example of a seemingly open regime, while it was in fact based on stifling the opposition and having security services closely monitor events on the ground.
A month ago, Mohammed Ben Aziz, a young university graduate who had not found a job and was selling vegetables to make a living in the city of Sidi Bouzid, saw a policeman destroy the makeshift booth for which he had no license and he set himself on fire.
Many other unemployed townspeople promptly launched a fierce protest which set the whole region aflame before spreading to the rest of the country. Unrest continued to grow for a month, while world media remained mostly silent; even Arab media kept their distance.
It was generally thought that it was just another flare-up which Ben Ali would soon take care of. The world began to pay attention when similar demonstrations took off in Algeria, with many fearing a domino effect. As the situation in Algiers quieted down, perhaps temporarily, events in Tunisia became more aggravated, reaching the capital.
Once again Ben Ali brought down his iron fist; police and security services opened fire on the protesters and as many as 80 unarmed civilians were killed. Protesters grew even more determined. Then the army’ s commander-in-chief announced that his troops would not intervene and the president, without stopping to reconsider, fired him.
Less than 24 hours later Ben Ali had fled, stunning many. After all, the police were still faithful to the regime and the members of the ruling party spread throughout the country were still a force to be reckoned with.
Suddenly the world was looking at a successful popular Arab revolution, one that had never happened before. There had been revolutions in the Arab world since it became independent of foreign colonial powers – the Young Officers Revolution in Egypt in 1952, revolutions in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Sudan – but they were all military coups, planned and executed by officers, even though they later said they were for the good of the people.
What happened in Tunisia was different. It was started by the people, not the leaders, and their spontaneous protest seemed to have snowballed on its own – unless evidence of a hidden hand is brought forward.
It appears to have been an authentic popular uprising, brought about by the suffering of many and the hatred of a corrupt government. It also appears that the new media – social networks, cell phones, etc. – did not play a dominant role in the events, which were there for all to see, though they did help in getting the news to the international press.
The media has found a connection between diplomatic cables recently made public by WikiLeaks pertaining to the extent of Tunisian corruption, and especially that of Ben Ali’ s family, to the events. But the people knew far better than the diplomats what was going on.
France, a very close ally of Ben Ali, was the first country to be taken completely by surprise. Only last week Foreign Minister Michele Alliot-Marie, had offered to help him, demonstrating that the French government did not understand what was actually happening. Sarkozy soon set the record straight and refused to grant political asylum to a man who had been his friend a scant week earlier.
Ben Ali was subsequently forced to find shelter in Saudi Arabia. Paris also let it be known that family members of the deposed president were not welcome and froze his bank accounts. Other European countries have yet to speak up, as if waiting to see which way the wind would blow. US President Barack Obama unambiguously declared his support for the demonstrators – but only after they had won.
Independent Arab media – and they exist – are now busy accusing Western countries that supported Ben Ali, as they still support other dictatorial Arab regimes, of helping them to exist and prolonging the suffering of their people. Is this fair? Should Western countries actively engage in changing regimes in the Arab world? There is no clear answer to this question.
Would such a move be welcomed or would it lead to a still greater hatred of the West, while endangering stability in Arab countries and bringing about chaos? Iraq should be an object lesson.
Arab countries are still keeping silent. Saudi Arabia explained that it gave shelter to Ben Ali on humanitarian grounds and because of Islamic solidarity, as it had done previously with Idi Amin, Nazaf Sherif and others, but this had been on the condition that the former president not engage in any political activity on Saudi soil.
The fact is that Arab countries are worried. Royal and presidential palaces are wondering whether this revolution will be the harbinger of more. The economic situation is no better, if not worse in Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Yemen, where widespread unemployment, poverty, sickness, illiteracy, profound inequalities and the same corruption of the ruling elites run rampant.
Why shouldn’ t a similar revolution take place in these countries? It’ s hard to say, perhaps because the conditions differ greatly from country to country.
While Egypt’ s so-called experts have been predicting a revolution for the past 20 years, Hosni Mubarak’ s hand is still steady at the helm... for now. In Algeria, the army canceled the first round of elections in 1991 after the radical Islamic Salvation Front had won, bringing on a civil war lasting many years and which may not be completely over; 200,000 have died so far.
One can say that the social and economic basis for a revolution exists in every single Arab country, but this does not mean that one will take place.
Another interesting matter is the level of involvement of Islamist militants – more specifically the Muslim Brotherhood – in recent events. A radical Islamist takeover is the ultimate nightmare for the West, but also for Arab countries. Pictures of demonstrations and clashes with security forces in Tunisia do not show bearded youth in galabiyeh, which are the trade mark of Islamic militants. There is no evidence of Islamic propaganda.
The exiled leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Rashad Anushi, who lives in London, gave a measured interview to daily Asharq Al-Awsat in which he stressed the suffering of the Tunisian people and expressed his support for the demonstrators who represent, according to him, all the elements of the people.
During Algerian clashes last week, the leaders of the Islamic Salvation Front tried to participate and even to lead the protests, but failed. Its chief, Abbas Medani, who is currently living in exile in Qatar, vainly called on his followers for five straight days to join the demonstrations. The party’ s second-in-command, Ali Belhaj, made a passionate speech in the center of Algiers but few came to listen.
Does this mean that something is changing and that Arabs are beginning to reject radical Islam, which brings nothing but chaos and destruction?
It is too soon to tell, but there is much to consider after what happened in Tunisia and Algeria.
Has the revolution really won? It is hard to say. Ben Ali is gone, but his supporters and the ruling party still hold all the government positions. They are well organized and not ready to relinquish their status and riches. Armed bands still roam the streets, bringing destruction and pillage. The army is slowly gaining control but the situation is still fraught with doubt.
The caretaker government wholly comprised of Ben Ali’ s men has started talking with different parties’ leaders about holding elections within 60 days. That is a long time from now.
Whatever the final outcome, the spontaneous revolution of the Tunisian people has forever changed the Arab world. They have shown that a grassroots revolution can happen everywhere.
The writer is a former ambassador to Romania, Egypt and Sweden, and a fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
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