Eleanor Hall reported this story on Monday, January 31, 2011 12:14:00
ELEANOR HALL: Middle Eastern political analyst, Fawaz Gerges, says the next 48 hours will be critical in deciding the future of Egypt.
Professor Gerges is the director of the Middle Eastern Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science and recently completed a 15 month field study in the region.
He says we are now witnessing an earthquake in the Arab world but that while the Israeli government should brace for a deterioration in its relationship with Egypt, the United States should not be afraid of the changes ahead. Professor Gerges spoke to me earlier from London.
Fawaz Gerges, the protesters are still on the streets in Egypt and are not mollified by President Mubarak's dismissal of his government and appointment of a vice-president. What options are now open to the Egyptian president?
FAWAZ GERGES: I think President Hosni Mubarak is a liability for the institution of the army. He is a deeply wounded man, he is bleeding terribly. I would argue that regardless of whether he survives or not, Egypt will likely witness a new year of politics in the next few days or next few weeks.
ELEANOR HALL: What is your reading of him personally though? Is there any chance that he will resign?
FAWAZ GERGES: President Mubarak is a military man. He will fight to the end so the consensus in Egypt is that the military institution in Egypt will not dare to challenge President Mubarak and basically ask him to leave in the same way that the Tunisian military demanded that President Ben Ali pack and leave.
ELEANOR HALL: So that is a very interesting relationship there, isn't it because you say that president Mubarak is a military man and yet we've seen relative friendliness between protesters and the army on the streets over the weekend.
FAWAZ GERGES: I think this tells you a great deal about the predicament facing the Egyptian army today. The Egyptian army is trying very hard to basically find an honourable exit for President Mubarak. They want to find a face-saving formula for President Mubarak. I believe that the army is trapped between a rock, that is the future President Mubarak, and the hard place, the aspirations and the fears and the hopes of the Egyptian, Egyptian public opinion.
ELEANOR HALL: Well Egyptian state TV is now reporting that police are back on the streets. What do you think that signals about the president's intentions?
FAWAZ GERGES: It is a very significant move because this tells me that the security upper office is trying to basically regain momentum, that Mubarak is doing his best to survive.
ELEANOR HALL: And is the key here which way the army goes and its actions on the street?
FAWAZ GERGES: I think the Egyptian military is the driver behind Egyptian politics. We will find out in the next few days whether the army has the will to basically listen to the aspirations of the people or to allow President Mubarak to remain in power.
ELEANOR HALL: What's your sense?
FAWAZ GERGES: I think 50/50. My take on it, even if Mubarak survives, I think his days are numbered and I think the opposition and the Egyptian people are united in their fundamental goal to basically get President Mubarak out.
ELEANOR HALL: What did you make of President Mubarak's appointment of Omar Suleiman as his vice-president, could he be a path to a peaceful resolution? Because we are hearing some talk that the opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei has offered to join him in a transitional government.
FAWAZ GERGES: Mohamed ElBaradei, the unifying figure within the opposition, has said very clearly, he wants a transitional national unity government that basically prepares Egypt for elections and lets the emergence evolve.
I think there is a great deal of opposition for Omar Suleiman among the opposition forces and also among the Egyptian public. The military holds the key. A formula could be found whereby Omar Suleiman along with Mohamed ElBaradei and other opposition figures form a national unity front.
The question is, there is a great deal of uncertainty. The situation is in flux. The next 48 hours could be the, could prove to be really pivotal in deciding the future of Egypt and the future of the Mubarak dynasty.
ELEANOR HALL: And what about the role of the Muslim Brotherhood?
FAWAZ GERGES: The Muslim Brotherhood is one of the most powerful oppositional players in Egypt. Ironically, they have been playing a very low-key role. Remember the Egyptian regime has used the Muslim Brotherhood as a scare tactic to scare the West and say if you don't support me, the Muslim Brotherhood will basically dominate Egypt and will conduct a radical foreign policy.
The Muslim Brotherhood has learned from Mubarak's tactics. They are being in the background. They are the force that could really make a big difference in whether Mubarak survives or not in the next few days and next few weeks.
ELEANOR HALL: And what do you make of the US government's response to this?
FAWAZ GERGES: The Obama administration is terrified. It is terrified of the implications of basically any political vacuum of authority in Egypt. If you listen carefully to the statements coming our of Washington, they have been trying very hard to walk a fine line between saying we support Mubarak who is one of the major allies in the Middle East but also we support the universal rights of the Egyptian people.
What has happened in the last 24 hours shows very clearly that the Obama administration has made up its mind that a transitional government must be put in place and obviously this speaks volumes about the loss of confidence of Mubarak by the Obama administration.
ELEANOR HALL: So how much panic would all of this be generating in other Arab regimes in the region?
FAWAZ GERGES: Well, this is an earthquake, it truly is. It is what I call the Arab world Berlin-wall moment. They are terrified because Egypt is the most pivotal state in the Arab world. If it goes the entire Arab world goes.
And that's why what's happening in Egypt will have tremendous consequences not just in Egypt itself, the most populous Arab state, the key to the Arab world but also in Saudi Arabia, in Algeria, in Jordan, in Yemen and other places as well.
It is the end of an era and really the beginning of a new one. You are going to have a new game of politics that focuses on democracy, on pluralism, on institutional transparency not just foreign policy and opposition to Israel.
ELEANOR HALL: Is the US though right to fear the new politics that may fill this vacuum?
FAWAZ GERGES: No, I don't think the United States should really fear the positive changes rocking the Arab world. What is happening in Egypt and Tunisia and other Arab states, this is a bottom up social movement, this is about men and women of all ages, of all political persuasions calling for freedom, calling for democracy. You don't see Egyptians and Tunisians burning American flags like the Iran revolution in the late 1970s.
This is about change in the Arab world - neither the West nor the United States should really fear the social upheaval rocking the Arab world.
ELEANOR HALL: What about Israel?
FAWAZ GERGES: Well, Israel is terribly concerned and in particular because Mubarak has been one of Israel's most important strategic allies in the region and I believe, regardless of what regime basically replaces Mubarak, I think you are going to see a deterioration in Egyptian-Israeli relations as long as Israel opposes a peace settlement that takes into account the legitimate grievances and rights of the Palestinian people.
I think if I were Israeli prime minister now, I would be terrified. If Israel loses Egypt, this could be really a major strategic setback for Israel's foreign policy and Israel's current policies in the region.
ELEANOR HALL: Are we likely to see an explosion of violence throughout the region as a result of this?
FAWAZ GERGES: No, no, I am not talking about violence. A change in Egyptian foreign policy would likely bring about necessary change in Israel. I think, to my mind, a change in Egyptian foreign policy will bring about peaceful benefits for both Egypt, the Palestinians and Israel as well.
ELEANOR HALL: Is there also a possibility that things could really degenerate in Egypt into terrible violence?
FAWAZ GERGES: No, no, I don't think so. I think, I'm hoping that the next 48 hours will bring about some kind of calm in Egypt. I think at the end of the day, I hope that the institution of the military will begin to negotiate for the opposition.
ELEANOR HALL: Professor Gerges, thanks so much for speaking to us.
FAWAZ GERGES: My pleasure.
ELEANOR HALL: That's Professor Fawaz Gerges, the director of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics speaking to me from London.
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The Washington Post Discussions / Live Q&A’ s
- Crisis in Egypt: The protests, U.S. policy, more
Michele Dunne :
Hi, this is Michele Dunne from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. I am here to discuss the situation in Egypt and answer your questions.
Q. The next Iran?
I am worried Egypt will be the new Iran. Let's remember this is how it started in '79...the so-called young, educated students took over...which led to one of the most repressive regimes in the world which sponsors worldwide terrorism....and is much worse than what came before it. How can we stop this from happening in Egypt?
January 31, 2011 12:43 PM
A. Rocci Fisch : January 31, 2011 1:13 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
I don't think the United States or any other outside power can stop change from happening in Egypt now. What we are seeing in Egypt is not an Islamist revolution, but a grassroots protest calling for democracy. It is true that Islamists, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, are an important part of the political scene but they do not dominate it and were not in the forefront of these protests. We're going to have to make our peace with the fact that they will be part of the change, while we continue to emphasize that Egypt should make a transition to real democracy, including the rule of law and rights for all Egyptians (including women and non Muslims).
January 31, 2011 1:13 PM
Q. Obama and Mubarak
Should President Obama bluntly and openly declare that Mubarak must go now?
January 31, 2011 12:59 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
Probably not; there are some dangers inherent in having U.S. fingerprints all over this. But U.S. officials have already begun to signal through their calls for an "orderly transition" that they are prepated to see him go.
– January 31, 2011 1:14 PM
Q. U.S. policy
With other countries in the Arab world trying to launch their own mass protests, what should the United States do to get ahead of this trend in their policies and messages?
January 31, 2011 1:07 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
The United States should persuade other Arab allies--for example Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia--to undertake serious reforms to improve respect for human rights and expand civil and political freedoms in their countries. That is what we failed to do in Egypt and why the country is now experiencing an explosion. The superficial and self-serving reforms these governments have undertaken so far clearly will be inadequate.
– January 31, 2011 1:17 PM
Q. Mubarak, China and Russia
If Mubarak were to cling to power at any cost, meaning violently crushing and oppressing his own people, he'd probably become a pariah in the U.S. and Europe, but what kind of backing might he receive from China and Russia?
January 31, 2011 11:50 AM
A. Michele Dunne :
First, there is a question as to whether lower-level Egyptian military officers would agree to fire on peaceful protestors. But if we assume they would, then you are correct that Mubarak would become a pariah. He might well receive more understanding from China and Russia, but ultimately they would be unable to replace what the United States (Egypt's major military partner) and Europe (Egypt's main trading partner) gave him. And it would just be a matter of time until the next outburst of protest.
– January 31, 2011 1:20 PM
Q. Mubarik's departure
How likely is it that Mubarak will voluntarily leave? It seems that only the military could force him to go.
January 31, 2011 1:06 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
Mubarak might be persuaded to move into retirement at the end of his current term in September. But the demonstrators want him gone now--within days, not months. I agree that it is probably only his own military who can tell him that he has to go.
– January 31, 2011 1:22 PM
Q. Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia
Will Jordan and Saudi Arabia follow Syria's move to reforms in response to the popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia before it?
January 31, 2011 1:16 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
The Jordanian government tends to be more responsive to its population and probably will undertake some reforms quickly. Saudi Arabia moves more slowly but pr0bably will also take steps.
– January 31, 2011 1:26 PM
Q. "Democracy"
With no history of democracy and no viable opposition parties, who has the organizational chops to lead Egypt other than the army and the Muslim Brotherhood?
January 31, 2011 1:17 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
Actually there are a few opposition parties and groups that enjoy credibility, but what Egypt needs is a period of political openness (leading to elections) in which new parties can form. Assuming the army remains cohesive, it will be an important source of stability. And the Brotherhood will be a major political player but will not necessarily dominate.
– January 31, 2011 1:28 PM
Q. Arab world
Which country in the Arab world do you think will be next?
January 31, 2011 1:19 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
Hard to say. Jordan, Yemen, and Algeria all have seen significant protests. And citizens are deeply dissatisfied with their government in several other countries: Libya, Syria, and Bahrain spring to mind.
– January 31, 2011 1:29 PM
Q. Israel-Palestine
What will this mean for Egypt's relations with Israel? And for the peace process?
January 31, 2011 1:20 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
If there is a reasonably stable and nonviolent transition in Egypt, I expect any government to emerge from new elections to respect the peace treaty with Israel. Egyptians have no desire to return to a state of war. That being said, Egyptians were dissatisfied with what they saw as cozy relations between Mubarak and Netanyahu and a new government might well chill those relations.
– January 31, 2011 1:33 PM
Q. Brass tacks
Who would actually takes over governing on an operating level if the existing regime is kicked out? Is there much of an opposition party, besides the Muslim Brotherhood, to actually make sure services actually run as necessary for security and basic needs?
January 31, 2011 1:20 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
There is still reason to hope that there can be a managed transition to new elections and new leadership without the existing government collapsing. The Egyptian military probably would not let things get as far as a total collapse of order.
– January 31, 2011 1:36 PM
Q. Military take over
Hi. Would the U.S. government support the Egyptian military taking over the presidency in Egypt removing Mubarak and his VP Omar Sulieman?
January 31, 2011 1:26 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
U.S. officials are reluctant to say that Mubarak should go, but I think they would accept a scenario in which the military would remove Mubarak (and possibly Sulaiman as well) in order to effect a peaceful transition to democracy.
– January 31, 2011 1:38 PM
Q. Egypt Youth Uprising
Was such youth uprising expected in U. S. government circles? How do you believe it would last?
January 31, 2011 1:31 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
U.S. officials had ample warning for years that frustration in Egypt was building due to youth unemployment, human rights abuses, poor governance, and corrupt politics. But they did not take it seriously until they saw the uprising in Tunisia.
– January 31, 2011 1:39 PM
Q. Israel and Gaza
Any new Egyptian government that follows the will of the Egyptian people will have much less friendly relations with Israel, particularly vis-a-vis Gaza. Should Israel worry about Egypt not following its illegal blockade of Gaza? And what could Israel do about Egypt opening the gates to Gaza on Egypt's border to all non-military goods? Would Israel try to re-occupy Gaza?
January 31, 2011 1:21 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
Any new Egyptian government will want to look more kindly upon the Gazan Palestinians, but will also face the same national security challenges that Mubarak faced. Whoever is in control, Cairo cannot afford to have an open door to Gaza because of fears that Palestinians will flood into Sinai, thereby making refugees an Egyptian burden and also increasing prospects of terrorism there. But it is true that a new government might be more permissive about letting non-military goods into Gaza.
– January 31, 2011 1:42 PM
Q. Opportunities for the United States?
While the chaos engulfing Cairo, the toppling of Tunisia's Ben Ali and the protests we have seen elsewhere certainly present enormous challenges for U.S. policy, might there also be opportunities here? What strategy would you recommend the administration pursue to take advantage of the fluid political situation?
January 31, 2011 1:36 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
This is an opportunity for the United States to prom0te the emergence of governments in the Middle East that respect democracy and human rights. Priority number one is to do all we can to ensure that Tunisia and Egypt make successful transitions. And we should press other governments to undertake serious reforms to pave the way for transitions that one hopes can be peaceful and more gradual.
– January 31, 2011 1:44 PM
Q. It always looks good at the start ...
I'm sure you remember that the 1979 Iranian revolution was also a "people power" revolution with many moderate forces. Ditto the 1917 Russian Revolution and even the French Revolution. But in each of those cases the moderate forces were then brutally purged and murdered by extremist elements that then took over. I am worried that this will happen in Egypt. Do you have good counter-examples which could provide a positive path for Egypt?
January 31, 2011 1:03 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
I am not an expert on revolutions and situations are never completely analygous, but I think there are some examples in eastern Europe that were encouraging. There are many risks in this situation, but the train is rolling forward in Egypt and Tunisia now and there is no way to turn it back now. The U.S. should help them find a constructive path forward.
– January 31, 2011 1:46 PM
Q. Elbaradie
How would nominating ElBaradai to be the youth uprising representative be viewed by the U.S. government?
January 31, 2011 1:45 PM
A. Michele Dunne :
Mohammed ElBaradei is a mature, responsible interlocutor and if most opposition and protest movements agree to deputize him, I don't see the U.S. objecting. But remember that it is the Egyptian government, not the United States, that has to negotiate with the demonstrators.
– January 31, 2011 1:48 PM
Q. Michele Dunne :
Thanks for the discussion; signing off now.
Cheers, Michele
January 31, 2011 1:51 PM
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(Reuters) - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said on Tuesday he would not leave Egypt although he would step down from the presidency at the end of his term, due to end when the country holds a presidential election in September. "The Hosni Mubarak who speaks to you today is proud of his achievements over the years in serving Egypt and its people," he said in an address broadcast on state television.
"This is my country. This is where I lived, I fought and defended its land, sovereignty and interests, and I will die on its soil," he said.
He also said pledged to implement a series of reforms, including calling on the judiciary to combat corruption, one of the complaints of protesters who have pushed him to announce an end to his presidency later this year.
(Reporting by Samia Nakhoul, Writing by Edmund Blair)
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_________________ When we do it right No-one remembers,
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በነገራችን ላይ ጋዳፊ ቢወድቅ ማን ይቀበለዋል ?ጥገኝነት ማን ይሰጠዋል !!!!መካከለኛው ምስራቅ አካባቢ የተጠላ እና የተወገዘ ሲሆን በሩን የሚከፍትለት ማንም ያለ አይመስለኝም . _________________ *The hardest thing about any political campain is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning!! E.stevenson
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