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Being an African president is a risky business. It can be fatal. We're already three down this year alone, and critically-ill Meles Zenawi looks like he'll make it four. Other continents, by and large, seem to do a better job of hanging on to their leaders. SIMON ALLISON examines Africa's strangely high presidential mortality rate.
The curse of the African president strikes again. This time, its victim was Ghana's John Atta Mills, who complained of pains on Monday last week and was dead by Tuesday afternoon. Mills was the latest in a disturbingly long line of African presidents to be unexpectedly and unceremoniously despatched to the Great Presidential Palace in Sky while still firmly ensconced in a real one.
Mills is the third this year alone. Before him was Malawi's Bingu wa Mutharika, who had a heart attack in April after over-exerting himself in an illicit sexual encounter with a female MP (according to this scandalous report, which, as much as I want it to be true, does strain the definition of credibility).
And in January, Guinea-Bissau's Malam Bacai Sanha succumbed in Paris after spending most of his two years in office in hospitals. Not Guinea Bissau hospitals, of course. As a rule, African presidents don't leave themselves at the mercy of their own health systems, not even in Guinea Bissau, which has the continent's best drug supplies (a fringe benefit of being a narco-state).
Go back just a little bit further and the list of dead sitting African presidents gets alarmingly longer. Libya's Muammar Gaddafi last year, although his circumstances were rather unusual (as, of course, was he).
In 2010, it was Nigeria's Umaru Musa Yar'Adua. In 2009, Omar Bongo of Gabon. In 2008, Zambia's Levy Mwanawasa and Guinea's Lansana Conté .
Maybe it's a presidential thing. It's a stressful job. But other continents aren't affected in the same way. Since 2008, Africa has lost eight heads of state. There are only 54 states. That's a presidential mortality rate of nearly 15%; slightly higher than the infant mortality rate of Sierra Leone, which is the second highest in the world. In other words, a baby in Sierra Leone has more chance of surviving its first five years than African presidents do of getting through a few terms in office.
Contrast this with other continents. In the same time period, there was just the one presidential fatality each from Asia (the Dear Leader from North Korea), Europe (Poland's Lech Kaczy?ski, in a plane crash), and North America (David Thomson of Barbados, from cancer). South America's leaders all somehow managed to keep themselves alive, an impressive feat especially considering Hugo Chavez's increasingly shaky public appearances. Same for Australasia.
So what's happening in Africa - why do our presidents keep dying on us?
It's tempting to resort to the old cliché about death being the only thing that can separate African leaders from their grip on power. But the facts don't support this analysis. It's certainly true of Bongo, Conte and Gaddafi, all of whom were old-school dictators who were never going to stop.
But the other five were all within their constitutional term limits. And they hadn't even fiddled with those limits yet. Mutharika looked like he was about to, but never got the chance. Mills, Sanha and Yar'Adua hadn't even made it to a second term.
So the problem must lie somewhere else. Perhaps it's something to do with age. Political success tends to come later to African leaders, a function perhaps of some holding on to it for too long and a long tradition of veneration for one's elders. The average age of African heads of state is 62.5. That's pension time, or nearing it, in most countries. To give you a bit of context, the European equivalent is just 55. This is also the average age of American presidents at the time of their inauguration. Barack Obama is 50. David Cameron is 45.
Given that 62.5 is just an average, and the continent does have a few young leaders - the DRC's Joseph Kabila is just a pipsqueak at 41, while Swaziland's King Mswati III is 44 and still virile (he needs to be with all those wives) - it follows that there are also some very old leaders.
Plenty of Zimbabweans have questioned why Robert Mugabe is still alive and kicking at 89 when so many younger presidents have fallen before him. Mwai Kibaki of Kenya is 80, and rumours abound that he's exactly as alert as 80-year-olds are expected to be: that is, not very.
Age is certainly a factor in Africa's high presidential mortality rate, probably the main factor. It's a truism that the longer you live, the more chances you have to die. Life is really just one long countdown to death; you don't know when it's coming, but it's always getting closer.
Going by the averages, African presidents are more than seven years closer to their deaths than their European counterparts. The recent record seems to confirms this.
But it's not just about age. Bear in mind too that basic health indicators in Africa are, on the whole, lower than any other continent.
You might think this has nothing to do with presidents, especially when they seek treatment in exclusive foreign hospitals. But healthcare is about more than just immediate treatment. Lifestyle plays a role, and, more pertinently here, so does one's health history. Growing up without access to decent healthcare while quite probably living through some form of rebellion, civil war or chaotic independence movement is bound to have long term implications.
Whatever the reason, it's a disturbing phenomenon. Sudden deaths create power vacuums, and power vacuums can cause huge instability. Sanha's death led almost directly to the coup in Guinea Bissau and the messy transitional arrangement that doesn't look like it's working.
Mutharika's passing also prompted a few tense moments, with members of his party wanting to ignore the consitutional succession process. In the end, everything worked out well, with Mutharika's replacement, Joyce Banda, proving far more effective than he ever was.
But Banda had better look after herself. Being an African president is a dangerous business, after all.
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One person was killed and three others wounded yesterday in a clash between Ethiopian troops and citizens of Abyei at the city market.
Witnesses told Radio Tamazuj that a group of Abyei youth tried yesterday afternoon to raid a mosque in the town after learning that a group of Misseriya from the native administration had come to the region to meet with leaders of the Dinka Ngok.
But Ethiopian peacekeeping troops refused them and evacuated the native administration leaders to the headquarters of UNISFA, the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei.
The youth returned to storm the mosque for a second time which led to a clash between the Ethiopian troops and the citizens. Witnesses claimed that the Ethiopian troops fired at the demonstraters, killing a man named Majik Kuol, who was hit in the chest.
Three others were wounded, one of them critically, who was transferred to the UNISFA hospital for treatment.
Sultan Kuol, a Dinka Ngok leader, condemned the Misseriya native administration leaders for coming to the region without prior notice, a move which he called provocative and caused the young people to demonstrate.
UNISFA in a security report yesterday stated that “ A group of women and children held a gathering in-front of UNISFA Main Gate on this date at around 0645H demanding a ‘ stoppage of violations’ on their land based on what was written on some papers being carried. The crowd dispersed at around 0925H and proceeded to Abyei town.”
“ Crowd was also reportedly grouped in Abyei town particularly at the mosque where a group of Misseriya Chiefs are staying. Situation in Abyei town is still tense as of this report,” it added.
The report was apparently prepared before the shooting incident and did not mention any violence at the mosque.
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A day-long siege at Eritrea's information ministry Monday ended in a stalemate, with disgruntled soldiers retreating to a strategic location outside the capital, Asmara. That the incident provides rare insight into the inner workings of one of the world's most opaque societies.
International observers are wondering what happened Monday after a group of soldiers drove to Eritrea's information ministry and demanded that a statement be read out over state-run television. The statement asking for the release of political prisoners and for respect of the constitution was being read when the station suddenly went off the air.
Nearly 12 hours later, the station resumed broadcasting with no mention of the cause of the disruption. The troops that had occupied the ministry simply climbed back into their armored personnel carriers and drove off.
Information gathered from a variety of sources indicates the operation was led by Colonel Saleh Osman, a legendary figure of the Eritrea-Ethiopia war from 1998 to 2000. A usually authoritative opposition website reports that Colonel Osman and several dozen supporters retreated to the suburbs of Asmara, where they are in talks with President Isaias Afewerki's government.
Information is tightly controlled in Eritrea. The watchdog group Reporters Without Borders ranks the Red Sea nation last out of 179 countries in press freedom, below North Korea.
Former Reporters Without Borders Africa director Leonard Vincent is the author of a book titled The Eritreans, and a close follower of the country. In a telephone interview, Vincent said Monday's siege appears to have been a show of force, and not an attempt to seize power.
"Yesterday's operation was not aimed at overthrowing by violence the government, but still it's a standoff with the government," said Vincent. "It's an operation aimed at showing defiance toward them. So this shows the level of frustration in the army is very high."
Vincent says the standoff at the information ministry suggests Colonel Osman has broad support within the military.
"If this was an isolated operation led by a rebel colonel, this kind of move should have been met by violence and severe repression," he said. "This hasn't happened, so there might be negotiations going on, and this unit might not be so isolated as we thought yesterday."
Vincent believes it is too early to tell whether the operation was successful.
"We cannot say if it has succeeded or failed," said Vincent. "What we can say is a faction of the army is showing its strength and is talking with the government on the basis of what they are capable of doing in terms of taking control of parts of the country."
Vincent says the dissidents' demand of freedom for political prisoners, particularly those jailed in a 2001 purge, has deep resonance among ordinary Eritreans.
"It's the sine qua non [essential] condition for change in Eritrea," he said. "The situation of political prisoners is awful. Reformists and journalists who were jailed in 2001 have vanished. According to sketchy reports, they are detained in high security prison in the far northeast of the country, and the majority have died from disease or by suicide. This is a method the government uses against any dissent or criticism."
Human rights groups have long criticized Eritrea's record of jailing government critics. The United Nations last year estimated there are as many as 10,000 political prisoners in a country of six million people.
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Posted by Adam » Wed Jan 30, 2013 7:42 am
Translated from Swedish newspaper Expressen
BEIRUT (Jan. 30, 2013) -- Eritrean dictator Isaias Afewerki's Information Minister Ali Abdu Ahmed has fled the country and is living today in a secret location.
He confirm his defection himself today in an exclusive interview with Expressen's reporter Kassem Hamade.
Ali Abdu says he is surprised that the Swedish authorities did not seek him for information about what happened to the imprisoned journalist Dawit Isaak. But he dare not give any hope to Isaak’ s family in Sweden.
Eritrea’ s information minister, Ali Abdu, 47, disappeared without a trace during a business trip to Germany in November.
Since then, not a sign of life heard from the Minister, who has been one of dictator Isaias Afewerki's closest men for many years.
He dares not speak on the phone with journalists, so he responds to Expressen questions via his brother Saleh Younis, who lives in the U.S..
Ali Abdu says that he very well knows who Dawit Isaak is.
"No one from the Swedish government or authorities have been trying to contact me about Dawit Isaak, Ali Abdu told Expressen."
For Dawit Isaak’ s family in Sweden and among the thousands who are working for his release, Ali Abdu defection brought hope that they will finally get an answer if Dawit Isaak still alive.
But Ali Abdu says he and the other ministers do not know anything about what happened Dawit and other imprisoned journalists and politicians.
"Neither I nor any other minister dared to ask what happened to Dawit Isaak. It is taboo to ask about things that are not related to one’ s job. There is an old guerrilla culture in the country. You carry out orders without asking why," he says.
Ali Abdu says it is routine for suspected dissidents to be arrested without court papers, without any documentation.
"It is done by oral orders. Sometimes, it is over the phone and in coded language. They are afraid of being intercepted by Western intelligence services, he says.
Ali Abdu says he is sorry about what happened to Dawit Isaak and other journalists.
"But it is only the president himself and his closest security that has information about Isaak. Not even the police chief knows anything about it," he says.
Ali Abdu lives under great pressure. Immediately after his defection in November, his father, his 15 year old daughter and his brother were arrested by the Security Service. He says he does not know where they are kept today.
He does not want to answer questions about what prompted him to defect or how he lives today.
"My brother is in shock right now. He is sad and feeling disappointed at how an entire generation in Eritrea has been lost," says the former minister's brother Saleh Younis.
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_________________ Only two defining forces have ever offered to die for you : Jesus Christ and the American Army . One died for your soul the other died for your freedom ! May God bless the USA !!
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